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FONDATION POUR UNE CULTURE DE SÉCURITÉ INDUSTRIELLE, TOULOUSE, FRANCE

RisCSIM

Mixed modes of governance as a means of risk management in complex systems: an empirical study using computer simulation

Duration: 15.07.2012 –14.07.2015

Projektlogo RiscSim

Objectives of the proj­ect

The re­search proj­ect, using computer simulation, aims at studying what is the impact of the mode of governance on the safety performance of a complex system. It shall help to achieve a better understanding of a “third mode” of governance and intends to analyze to what extent this “third mode” helps to manage complex systems such as air transportation, energy systems or road transportation and especially to control the risks that are inherent to them.

As the outlook of previous re­search in the field shows, there has already been a lot of theoretical work as well as case studies in both fields: complexity and governance (Holland 2006; Sawyer 2005; Resnick 1995; Greve/Schnabel 2011; Schneider/Bauer 2009). However, an empirical investigation of the governance of complex systems still is lacking. The proj­ect thus will investigate this issue empirically, by using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) of complex systems.

RisCSIM macro-level view: Visualizing emergent complexity based on
agents‘ interactions

At the TU Dort­mund Uni­ver­sity, a new methodology of agent based modeling and simulation (ABMS) of complex systems (at the macro level) that takes into account the decision making of strategic actors at the micro level is applied. The proj­ect involves the development of a computer simulation prototype applied to a transportation system (as an example) allowing testing of the effect of “real time participation” of users and stakeholders at different levels on the safety performance of the complex system. This should help to answer the following question: which mode of governance is better suited to manage and control risks in complex sociotechnical systems? The simulation may help managers of complex systems to improve their understanding of the dynamics of these systems and develop new ideas as well as new tools to control risks and increase safety performance. It might be used by risk managers as a decision-making or a train­ing tool.

To prevent breakdowns of complex sociotechnical systems, measures have to be found to manage and control them. These complex sociotechnical systems can be managed in different ways: a hierarchical mode of governance, which allows top-down planning in advance, may neglect the particular interests of individual users, participants and/or stakeholders, whereas smart governance e.g. self-organization may enable users and interest groups to participate in shaping the de­sign as well as influencing the everyday practice of the system. The “third mode” of governance com­bines features of hierarchical control and decentralized coordination that allows users to negotiate solutions at a local level. The hypothesis of the proj­ect is: the safety performance of a complex system may be increased by a mixed mode of governance, which com­bines features of hierarchical control and decentralized coordination that allows users to negotiate solutions at a local level.

Methodology

To de­sign realistic scenarios and micro-calibrate the model interviews with users, participants, stakeholders, operators, and managers will be conducted. This will furthermore help to identify critical or even risky issues based on interviewees’ experiences from practice.

An agent-based simulation model of complex networked, sociotechnical systems will be implemented, which com­bines aspects of governance theory, sociological theory of action and complexity theory. Afterwards, experiments with different realistic (see above) scenarios will be conducted to measure risk and performance values subject to user participation and the mode of governance. The experiments will be either purely simulative or conducted with real people. The subjects will be students for the pre-tests and people from organizations in the fields of air and road transportation.

Contact persons

Anfahrt & Lageplan

Der Cam­pus der Technischen Uni­ver­si­tät Dort­mund liegt in der Nähe des Autobahnkreuzes Dort­mund West, wo die Sauerlandlinie A45 den Ruhrschnellweg B1/A40 kreuzt. Die Abfahrt Dort­mund-Eichlinghofen auf der A45 führt zum Cam­pus Süd, die Abfahrt Dort­mund-Dorstfeld auf der A40 zum Cam­pus-Nord. An beiden Ausfahrten ist die Uni­ver­si­tät ausgeschildert.

Direkt auf dem Cam­pus Nord befindet sich die S-Bahn-Station „Dort­mund Uni­ver­si­tät“. Von dort fährt die S-Bahn-Linie S1 im 20- oder 30-Minuten-Takt zum Hauptbahnhof Dort­mund und in der Gegenrichtung zum Hauptbahnhof Düsseldorf über Bochum, Essen und Duisburg. Außerdem ist die Uni­ver­si­tät mit den Buslinien 445, 447 und 462 zu erreichen. Eine Fahrplanauskunft findet sich auf der Homepage des Verkehrsverbundes Rhein-Ruhr, außerdem bieten die DSW21 einen interaktiven Liniennetzplan an.
 

Zu den Wahrzeichen der TU Dort­mund gehört die H-Bahn. Linie 1 verkehrt im 10-Minuten-Takt zwischen Dort­mund Eichlinghofen und dem Technologiezentrum über Cam­pus Süd und Dort­mund Uni­ver­si­tät S, Linie 2 pendelt im 5-Minuten-Takt zwischen Cam­pus Nord und Cam­pus Süd. Diese Strecke legt sie in zwei Minuten zurück.

Vom Flughafen Dort­mund aus gelangt man mit dem AirportExpress innerhalb von gut 20 Minuten zum Dort­mun­der Hauptbahnhof und von dort mit der S-Bahn zur Uni­ver­si­tät. Ein größeres Angebot an inter­natio­nalen Flugverbindungen bietet der etwa 60 Ki­lo­me­ter entfernte Flughafen Düsseldorf, der direkt mit der S-Bahn vom Bahnhof der Uni­ver­si­tät zu erreichen ist.

Die Ein­rich­tun­gen der Technischen Uni­ver­si­tät Dort­mund verteilen sich auf den größeren Cam­pus Nord und den kleineren Cam­pus Süd. Zudem befinden sich einige Bereiche der Hoch­schu­le im angrenzenden Technologiepark. Genauere In­for­ma­ti­onen kön­nen Sie den Lageplänen entnehmen.